COVID-19. 3 Scenarios for Students to Think About

It is hard to say exactly how Coronavirus will affect students with regards to their accommodation as we are yet to discover a definite timeline. The best we can do is layout scenarios based on different outcomes. Concerning housing, there are three scenarios students should consider. These are as follows:

Scenario 1: The three-week quarantine period is effective, and the virus is contained.

This scenario is the most pleasant and desirable, but it is looking highly unlikely. The problem with this is that unless the whole world goes into quarantine until all cases are eradicated it is likely that as soon as restrictions are lifted the number of cases will spike again.

We will assume this succeeds and the virus is eradicated. What does this mean for student housing? Students will be pleased to know that this would have little impact on their future accommodation. Most students search for accommodation between November and February meaning that the virus will have little to no impact. The only potential impact is a minor shortage of private rentals. The majority of landlords are above the age of 50, with 32% being over the age of 60. This, unfortunately, puts them at more risk of coronavirus. The vast majority will be in good health and so this is unlikely to be a severe problem in the student market. It is also worth mentioning that the average age of new buyers in the buy-to-let market has dropped significantly, to 41, in the recent past.

Scenario 2: The virus lasts for another 6 months.

This is looking more and more likely as time progresses, with the only realistic short-term solution being herd immunity. Although herd immunity allows much of the world to get back to its usual routine it poses several problems for students and student housing.

Students may encounter problems with changing houses. Almost all students will be changing house between June and August. If restrictions are still in place on travel during this time, there may be issues with moving personal belongings. I encourage students to take all their belongings home if they have the opportunity rather than leaving them at their current accommodation until their moving out date. This will allow you to wait until restrictions are lifted before having to travel again.

The government has a lot on its plate currently with much more pressing issues, but it would be wise to encourage student unions or universities to raise the problem with the government. The government could force landlords to allow students to leave their belongings in place even if their lease expires. This is based on the assumption that no student will need to move into a new property until university restarts. Students are left in an unfortunate situation where they will be paying rent without being allowed to live in their new property if this does occur. This could be combated by the government enforcing mandatory move in and move out dates for student accommodation this year. For example, forcing landlords to keep their current tenants until a certain date.

Scenario 3: The virus lasts for 12 to 18 months

This scenario is potentially the most damaging to students. Students have already signed onto their houses for next year and may have very limited use for them. We can assume that if the virus lasts this long the government will try to get as many people back to their normal routine as possible. However, it is currently unclear what this will mean for students. Students could find themselves in a situation where they have intermittent periods at university. Students will likely have to pay for their accommodation, especially if it is in the private rented sector. This poses an issue to students that require work to pay for it. Students must learn to become adaptive and lead fluid lives. Many companies face an extremely testing time ahead.

Students generally have jobs in companies that have limited cash flow, for example, pubs and bars. Some of these will not survive and students may find a shortage of jobs in this sector. An alternative to this could be for students to look at enrolling in programs that allow you to work while studying. These types of programs are few and far between and are normally in high demand as they are great for the CV. Student career services are the best place to contact for more information on what roles are available in your respective field.

Key points:

• If life resumes as normal after the quarantine period, you should encounter few problems with your accommodation.
• You should consider moving your personal belongings home at the earliest opportunity.
• You should consider jobs in work while you study programs to combat the uncertainty in the restaurant industry.
• Contact your careers department to determine what programs are available to you.
• Ask your student union, NUS and your university to request the government for clarity on the issue of change of accommodation.
• Encourage your university to establish more work while you study programs with companies.

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